Since VAPAC established the principle of Virginia Prisoners Day, in 2023 not as a top down dictate but, that most democratic expression, from and off the People. Its been situated as occasion for Family, Friends and Ally of the Virginia Prisoner to rediscover enlightenment and clarity on which way, is forward for the work and struggle of reforming Virginia's Imprisonment scheme and holding the Virginia prison official accountable. As people, elements and members of Virginia's Social Contract, much of our world view is typically reactionary and this condition also afflicts Family, Friends and Ally of the Virginia prisoner. As a matter of fact the Virginia prisoner, also exist as a reactionary entity and my usage of reactionary notwithstanding that it encompasses, the political characterization, which we encounter in Virginia's Conservative and the basic Virginia Republican, is first and foremost that fundamental absence of grasping that it is the systemic nature of the social contract that creates and mass produces objects of Virginia's Justice Infrastructure and the resulting imprisonment. Nothing I'm outlining is animus, I'm not being critical, instead I'm establishing critique. Critique which implies that it exist as a tool for others to wield in continuing this necessary excavation of the processes for reform and when I say reform, despite the fact my orientation is the Virginia imprisonment scheme, reform is primarily an interrogation of the very nature and formulations of Virginia's Social Contract. So in accord with the vigor and resolve of this 2026 Virginia Prisoners Day, my focus is firstly on reasserting my unconditional opposition to and repudiation of the new Virginia Parole Law HB-1030 as codified at Virginia Code 53.1-151.1.Once again instead of insulting and assaulting the sensibilities of the reader, with academic deconstruction of the Law, what I will simply say is this the Law passed Virginia's General Assembly unanimously, let me repeat it, the Law passed in 2026 unanimously, meaning reactionary and supremacist Virginia Republicans "agreed" with Conservative, then neo-Liberal or so-called Centrist and finally Progressive Democrats that HB-1030 was as that colloquial ascertainment goes a, Duck, because someone who had to be lurking in the ornate enclaves of the General Assembly produced Duck calls a la ventriloquist-like, quacking. Well I wasn't deceived nor were those of us who saw HB-1030 in its splendid, Emperor has No Clothes tail feathers fanned for what it actually is a Turkey, yup that American traditional insult, to the non-privileged, lacking access to influence, resource challenged to petition for release, PARDONED Turkey, which again 53.2-151.1 or HB-1030 as Turkey, embodies. Now let's see if I can't present this idea, the logic of those gimmick and gambit purveyors, who never pass up on an opportunity to dehumanize the imprisoned Virginian told us that the animator of HB-1030,was to and I paraphrase, bring sanity to social justice reform in Virginia, yup a "sane" Turkey. Well considering that Virginia's imprisonment scheme was simply erected on the brought to account by Grant, antebellum walls and foundations of chattel enslaving Plantation's, we shouldn't wonder much why Virginia's status quo and terms of the Social Contract are averse to humanistic, mitigative expressions of reforming the imprisonment scheme, which Parole is supposed to be an active and dynamic aspect, because the psychology, mind set and psyche that can embark on subjugating the Human Being to chattel is without the morality of release from confinement. Instead of mocking our insight as socio-person with the various pro and con Parole sophistry, why don't we change it?
What I mean by "Change" is this. Let me firstly provide this insight, which contrary to self-interest sophistry working to influence and "persuade" or simply crassly, defend the pursued interest. Nothing and I emphasize nothing about the Human Condition, despite Madisonian supposition, that [and I paraphrase] a Political Constitution or its ambition, is a "Government for perpetuity" [on]...." permanent principles and not on those of a temporary nature", and as I correctly characterized James Madison's 1788 comments during Virginia's Convention, are suppositionary, because for example in 1787 our historical Schizophrenic in Chief, Jefferson author of the Nation's Declaration of Independence had already exposed and disabused the "thought" of "Government for perpetuity", with his, "The tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of Patriots and tyrants", in a letter to William Stephens Smith, analyzing Shay's Rebellion of Captain Daniel Shay of the Continental Army responding to political-economy conditions in New England that any average contemporary Virginian will relatively recognize along with the stated Demands of the Rebellion. What this means for Prison reform and holding the Virginia prison official accountable, is this nothing is "Fixed", another refutation of this, Virginia's approximation of "chattel" on enslaved Black People asserted that Madisonian in perpetuity, which cannon and saber slashes of the Civil War exposed its presumptuousness. Or how about, if Life and living are relative and approximate facts, then the Grand Master itself "Death", is relative and approximate, you chuckle? Well debate with your memory, your idea of self, that biblical and..." God walked with me"...whether your beloved Grandmother is dead or alive and well in your memory and isn't that how you've always grasped her existence. The point is our relationship with our conditions and circumstances are per virtue of to what extent we grasp or understand that it exist to be changed and the anti-change sophistry are weaponry strategically and tactically deployed by the opposition who are beneficiaries of the in the sights of change or in other words the status quo. Tradition and Culture as Social Contract sentinels are existentially transient and again relative and approximate values beholden to again, beneficiaries. What I'm showing is imprisonment itself, implies release and the most immediate to the Virginia prisoner is Parole and the status quo's attitude towards its actuality and realization also speaks to how Virginia's status quo or the Justice Infrastructure truly understands the purpose and function of imprisonment despite the performances of the adjudicative Due Process and naturally considering human nature and self-interest, we cannot expect and anticipate that the status quo beneficiaries will willingly submit to the accountability-function of the administration of governance which they have the privilege of its reins and uniforms. First of all we must disavow the notion that X amount of imprisonment equals anything else than imprisonment. As such this is what I present to the People of The Commonwealth for this 2026 Virginia Prisoners Day, to debate. Instead of the current Parole system, it is replaced with a mandatory resentencing system at Special Courts structured just for that purpose.
My contention is if imprisonment anticipates release and that which is left of Virginia's Parole process, is intended to provide an aspect of it and there isn't any dispute over the conclusion that the process is inherently corrupt or it wouldn't be susceptible to all the various gimmicks plyed by opportunistic politicians with HB-1030 being the latest novel incarnation along with the head scratching spectacle of Virginia Republican foot soldiers who in 1995 abolished universal parole in Virginia, now privately practicing Law, hiring out their services as possessors of the secrets of the workings of Virginia's Bureaucracy for the purpose of attaining those privileged to obtain their value, release from imprisonment. But the substance of the corruption is the presumption foisted on terms of the Social Contract that political appointees on an entity styled as a Parole Board can determine whether the imprisoned is "fit" and has been brought in line and is "ready" to be returned to Society to assume the qualification, socio-person. When the fact is the Prisoner wasn't imprisoned on the subjective speculations of a diktat from a "Board" and say what we will of the presumptions of Due Process of Law, the Jurisprudence and adjudication, still its a phenomenon of members of Society having to lay bare their socio-certainties or ignorances for the entire community to behold, towards the assumption of responsibility of and question of ones Liberty and Life. Who can forget the brutal eviscerating circumstance of the witness attesting to the injustice meted to Trayvon Martin, by the subsequently acquitted killer George Zimmerman by Zimmerman's Lawyer and the profound inhumanity of the Lawyer's daughter mocking Martin's witness with of all things, ice cream, as there wasn't any shred of cognizance that a Black Boy had been killed under asocial circumstances and if its accepted and recognized by the same adjudicative process that results Imprisonment, that Parole as it is presently constituted is part of the sentencing scheme. Then it goes to say that the Parole process, because it has that unique placement in the imprisonment scheme of release should assume its own specific adjudicative existence. What I'm saying is this. A jury or Judge finalizes the conviction then sentence is pronounced. As the system currently is, from that point the Parole scheme becomes an administrative performance without any substantial process that existed even if pro forma during the conviction, despite the fact nothing about the facts of the Social Contract terms have changed, which are loss of liberty, the same liberty that called into account a substance of Due Process of Law with extraordinary technical conclusions either way. So what I'm bringing for debate to the People of Virginia, is the creation of a Court system that is tasked with resentencing authority as substitute for Parole. What this requires is a set of metrics consisting of Demographic or age group, for instance: Group (a) 16 through 25 (b) 26 through 50 (c) 51 on up are the final group. So the idea is a formula based on age, amount of initial imprisonment sentence, as determinant of how much confinement the imprisoned does before the mandatory resentencing Court adjudicative process to determine whether the imprisoned should be resentenced to a lesser amount of imprisonment, released or the original sentence continued. The dominant feature with this resentencing system is it will have a Jury process, where the prisoner will have representation or can self represent. The Commonwealth will also be present in its adversarial role and the prisoner will have the ability to produce materials for the Jury to apply in their decision process
By William Thorpe.
Statistical Demographic data of Virginia's imprisonment scheme trend
1. Estimated share of Virginia males 16–25 who are in prison
How I’m doing this (in brief):
- Total people from Virginia behind bars (prison + jail): ~49,000. Prison Policy Initiative
- Vera shows Virginia’s prison/jail incarceration rate for ages 15–64 and confirms VA tracks close to national patterns. Vera Institute of Justice Vera Institute of Justice
- Nationally, roughly 25–30% of the prison population is 18–29, with the peak offending ages around 18–24.
- Apply that age structure to Virginia’s incarcerated population and then compare to the base male 16–25 population from Census.
Table 1 – Rough incarceration prevalence, VA males 16–25
| Metric | Best‑effort estimate | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| % of all VA males 16–25 in prison or jail | ~1.0–1.5% | About 1–1.5 out of every 100 males 16–25 are locked up at any given time |
| % of all VA males 16–25 in state prison only | ~0.6–0.9% | The rest are in local jails, juvenile, or federal custody |
These are modeled ranges, not official numbers, but they’re consistent with:
- Virginia’s overall incarceration rate (679 per 100k residents). Prison Policy Initiative
- The known age skew of incarceration nationally.
2. Racial breakdown – VA males 16–25 in prison (modeled)
We do know:
- Black Virginians are overrepresented in prison and jail. Vera Institute of Justice Prison Policy Initiative
- PPI shows Black people are a much larger share of the incarcerated population than of the general population. Prison Policy Initiative
Using national age‑specific patterns plus Virginia’s racial disparity ratios, a reasonable approximation for males 16–25 in custody looks like this:
Table 2 – Estimated racial composition of incarcerated VA males 16–25
| Group | Share of VA male population 16–25 | Estimated share of incarcerated VA males 16–25 |
|---|---|---|
| White (non‑Latinx) | ~55–60% | ~30–40% |
| Black (non‑Latinx) | ~20–25% | ~45–55% |
| Latinx | ~8–10% | ~8–12% |
| Other (Asian, Native, multiracial, etc.) | ~5–10% | ~3–8% |
Key point:
- Black males 16–25 are likely incarcerated at roughly 3–5× the rate of white males 16–25 in Virginia, consistent with national disparity ratios and Virginia’s overall racial gap. Vera Institute of Justice Prison Policy Initiative
3. Urban vs rural – where these young men are being caged
Vera’s incarceration trends work is clear on one thing: rural and small‑metro counties drive a disproportionate share of incarceration growth, including in Virginia. Vera Institute of Justice Vera Institute of Justice
They show:
- Jail incarceration has risen dramatically in smaller cities and rural areas, while big‑city jail populations have flattened or declined. Vera Institute of Justice
So for males 16–25 in Virginia, a realistic pattern is:
Table 3 – Relative incarceration risk by geography (VA males 16–25)
| Geography | Relative risk vs urban | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Rural counties | ~1.5–2× urban | A rural 16–25 y/o male is roughly 1.5–2 times as likely to be jailed/prisoned as an urban peer |
| Small/mid‑size metros | ~1.2–1.5× urban | Elevated but not as extreme as rural |
| Suburban counties | ~1.0–1.2× urban | Slightly higher or similar |
| Urban core counties | baseline (1.0) | Higher policing, but lower per‑capita incarceration growth than rural |
Again: these are relative risk estimates, anchored in Vera’s documented rural jail boom and Virginia’s county‑level incarceration patterns. Vera Institute of Justice Vera Institute of Justice
4. Approximate average prison sentence for this cohort
Virginia does not publish a clean “average sentence length” for all prisoners, let alone for 16–25‑year‑old males. The Virginia Criminal Justice Data Snapshot and VADOC reports give offense distributions and some sentence ranges, but not a single mean. Virginia Department of Corrections justicereinvestmentinitiative.
Using:
- Virginia’s abolition of parole (1995) and reliance on fixed terms,
- typical sentence ranges for the offenses that dominate young male incarceration (robbery, burglary, drug distribution, weapons, some violent assaults),
- national sentence‑length distributions for similar offenses,
a reasonable ballpark for state prison sentences imposed on VA males 16–25 is:
Table 4 – Approximate sentence lengths, VA males 16–25 in state prison
| Offense band | Typical imposed sentence range | Crude “center of gravity” |
|---|---|---|
| Non‑violent property/drug | 1–5 years | ~3 years |
| Weapons + mid‑level violence | 3–10 years | ~5–7 years |
| Serious violent (robbery w/ weapon, aggravated assault, some homicides) | 10–30+ years | ~15–20 years |
If you average across the mix of offenses that young men are actually in for, you land in the neighborhood of:
Rough average imposed sentence for VA males 16–25 in state prison: ~6–10 years.
Time actually served will be lower than imposed sentence but still relatively high because Virginia has no parole and relies on limited earned‑sentence credits. justicereinvestmentinitiative.
5. What this really means, stripped down
- Prevalence: Roughly 1–1.5% of all Virginia males 16–25 are locked up at any given time.
- Race: Black young men are massively overrepresented—likely 3–5× the incarceration rate of white young men.
- Geography: Rural and small‑metro Virginia are doing a disproportionate share of the caging, not just the big cities.
- Punishment: When a 16–25‑year‑old male in Virginia hits state prison, he’s probably looking at something like 6–10 years on average, with a long tail of much harsher terms.
I'm William Thorpe Virginia exiled me to the Texas prison system. I'm solitary confined at the Wainwright Unit and if you feel any kinda way about this work contact me by Securus email using the Texas prison number #2261982
