Lying about recidivism didn't start with Spanberger it is part of the foundation of VADOC

Pictures are taken from the internet and are used for illustrative purposes only

 SUMMARY OF THE POST

Title: Is The Virginia Department of Corrections (VADOC) Counting Dead and Terminally Ill Released Prisoners In Its Claims of Low Recidivism? Author: William Thorpe

1. Context: Virginia Abolished Parole in 1995

Thorpe begins by explaining that parole was abolished in 1995 , leaving only two groups eligible for release:

• People imprisoned before 1995 (geriatric or legacy parole)

• People imprisoned after 1995 with sentences short enough to finish within 27 years

2. Why VADOC’s “Low Recidivism” Claim Is Misleading

Thorpe argues that VADOC’s recidivism numbers are structurally distorted because:

• Post‑1995 prisoners serve extremely long sentences, so very few have been released and had the chance to “recidivate” at all. This makes the pool too small to measure meaningfully.

• Harold Clarke has acknowledged that prisoners are staying longer, which further shrinks the recidivism pool.

Thus, the only group large enough to measure recidivism is pre‑1995 prisoners — but that group is now elderly, infirm, or dead.

3. The Core Accusation: VADOC Is Counting the Dead

Thorpe states plainly that:

• Many pre‑1995 prisoners released on geriatric or legacy parole die within two years of release.

• Dead prisoners, terminally ill prisoners, and severely disabled prisoners cannot return to prison, so including them in recidivism calculations artificially lowers the rate.

• Therefore, VADOC’s “low recidivism” claim is deceptive, insidious, and distorted.

4. Author’s Closing

Thorpe signs off from solitary confinement in Texas, noting Virginia exiled him there.

 ANALYSIS — WHAT THIS POST IS REALLY DOING

A. Thorpe is exposing a statistical trick

The post argues that VADOC’s recidivism numbers are not just misleading — they are structurally impossible to interpret honestly because:

• The post‑1995 population is still incarcerated.

• The pre‑1995 population is dying.

This means VADOC is effectively saying: “Look how few people return to prison — because they’re dead.”

This is the heart of the indictment.

B. It’s a critique of political culture, not just math

Thorpe frames recidivism manipulation as part of Virginia’s political culture of concealment, where institutions protect themselves by:

• Using numbers that sound good but hide structural harm

• Presenting “success” metrics that rely on the deaths of elderly prisoners

• Avoiding transparency about who is actually counted

This aligns with VAPAC’s broader theme: Virginia’s institutions normalize deception to maintain legitimacy.

C. It challenges Governor Spanberger’s public claims

Although written in 2022, the argument directly undermines the Governor’s current narrative that recidivism is “at the lowest.” Thorpe’s logic shows that such claims are:

• Not evidence of successful rehabilitation

• Not evidence of safer prisons

• Not evidence of humane policy

They are evidence of statistical manipulation enabled by the abolition of parole.

D. It reframes the moral question

Thorpe’s deeper point: If the state’s “success” depends on counting dead people as “non‑recidivists,” then the metric itself is morally bankrupt.

VADOC’s recidivism numbers are not low because people are thriving after release — they’re low because Virginia abolished parole and the people who qualify for release are elderly, terminally ill, or dying. Counting the dead as “success stories” is not reform. It’s statistical fraud.

By vapac